THE PROTEIN PULSE Closing Bell Friday | October 23rd, 2026

Closing Bell Friday | October 23rd, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 23rd, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: This week's animal-health developments are significant, but they are three different stories, not one industrywide supply problem. The screwworm detections in Texas and New Mexico bring renewed attention to livestock movement requirements in affected areas. Brazil's Newcastle disease case has prompted different poultry import restrictions depending on the destination. Finland's African swine fever detection in wild boar has affected pork exports to China and Japan. What matters commercially is how narrowly or broadly each restriction applies. A regional poultry restriction is not a ban on every Brazilian shipment. A livestock movement zone is not a closure of every border crossing. And an export restriction does not automatically mean a shortage in the domestic market. The takeaway is to understand the specific consequences of each development without assuming a wider disruption than the evidence supports. That's how we separate meaningful market intelligence from unnecessary alarm.

HOST: The first U.S. wildlife screwworm detection, in a Texas elk, has triggered renewed surveillance and zone revisions. A separate beef-cow detection in New Mexico adds livestock-movement concern ahead of a scheduled border-crossing reopening. Poultry trade faces a separate disruption after Newcastle disease was detected in turkeys in Brazil's Santa Catarina state. Mexico and Malaysia suspended covered poultry imports from all Brazil. China, Saudi Arabia and Chile restricted specified products from Santa Catarina. Wisconsin reported another commercial HPAI detection. Alberta reported affected broiler, duck and mixed flocks. Restrictions following an African swine fever detection in Finnish wild boar are disrupting pork sales into China and Japan. Diesel futures sharpened transportation-cost exposure. Four USDA reports due later today will inform next week's outlook.

SHAWN: Cattle on Feed prereport estimates point to fewer placements and marketings. Ahead of today's USDA report, analysts estimate October 1st cattle on feed at one hundred point three percent of a year earlier, up three tenths of a percent. September placements at ninety-one point seven percent, down eight point three percent. And September marketings at ninety-two point eight percent, down seven point two percent. These are prereport analyst estimates, not USDA findings. Boxed-beef prices retreated despite smaller slaughter. Choice closed Thursday at three sixty-nine forty-seven, down three twelve. Select fell four ninety-three to three fifty forty-one. The Choice Select spread widened one eighty-one to nineteen oh six, with one hundred twenty-three negotiated loads. Thursday's estimated cattle slaughter was one hundred three thousand head. Year-to-date slaughter stands seven point two percent below 2025. September beef output fell about six percent year over year despite heavier cattle. January through September beef production totaled eighteen point four one billion pounds versus nineteen point three six billion in 2025. Imported lean beef offers a different price picture. Platts assessed frozen imported nineties at three thirteen C-I-F U.S. East Coast and three zero zero F-C-A East Coast on October 21st. Argentina-origin nineties were indicated around three zero zero at the Philadelphia port of entry for November through December. National fresh eighty-fives averaged three oh two Thursday. National fresh nineties were not established October 22nd. Their last established average was three ninety on October 19th.

HOST: Thursday's belly rebound fails to erase earlier weakness. The pork carcass cutout rose seventy-three cents to seventy-five twenty-three, led by bellies up six ninety-three to eighty-four fifty-nine. Butts declined two ninety-four to ninety-nine sixty-eight. Negotiated hogs averaged sixty-six forty-eight, down one twenty-two, and Thursday slaughter was four hundred ninety-seven thousand head. Processor and producer economics diverge. Sterling estimates packer margins at twelve sixty-two per head for the week ended October 17th, versus six ninety-nine the previous week. Farrow-to-finish returns slipped to seven eighty-four per head from sixteen eighty-seven. January through September pork production totaled twenty point three seven billion pounds, slightly above 2025 despite September's three percent decline. Weekly export sales for October 15th were reported at thirty-seven thousand four hundred seventy-five metric tons. Mexico slowed, while China accounted for seven thousand two hundred seventy-six tons.

SHAWN: Wisconsin reports another commercial HPAI detection. State officials confirmed a thirteen thousand four hundred sixty-three bird commercial flock in Barron County on October 22nd, quarantined the premises and depopulated the birds. These are localized flock losses, not a quantified national chicken-supply change. Alberta losses span different poultry operations. Three commercial flocks confirmed October 1st through 8th totaled a reported seventy-seven thousand seventy-seven affected birds. Sixty-nine thousand one broilers in Strathcona County, two thousand four hundred forty-four duck breeders in Sturgeon County and five thousand six hundred thirty-two mixed broilers, turkeys and geese in Two Hills County. These are flock sizes, not deaths. Brazil's Newcastle restrictions disrupt trade. The reported infection involved commercial turkeys in Santa Catarina, not a confirmed nationwide broiler outbreak. Reported restrictions differ by destination. Mexico and Malaysia cover Brazilian-origin poultry shipments more broadly, while China, Saudi Arabia and Chile target specified products from Santa Catarina. Rules differ by product and destination. Thursday's U.S. broiler trade was generally steady, with some breast, wing and tender weakness. Chicken prices split by cut. For October 12th through 16th, national fresh conventional F-O-B boneless skinless breasts averaged one seventeen, down one seventy-five cents week over week. Tenderloins averaged one eleven, down two oh six cents. Boneless skinless thighs rose five thirty-eight cents to one seventy-three. Whole wings averaged one oh nine, down one twenty cents. These weekly figures are not Thursday spot quotes. The cuts did not move together. Finland's pork export access takes a hit. Following an African swine fever detection in wild boar, restrictions on Finnish pork exports to China and Japan disrupted business for Atria. The processor reported third-quarter sales of four hundred seventy-five point two million euros, up four percent, but lower Finnish export sales. It estimated a four million to five million euro 2026 operating-profit effect, including about two million in the third quarter. The European Union weighs Brazilian poultry reopening, not beef. The European Commission intends to propose restoring Brazil's eligibility to export poultry meat and honey after positive audit findings, but member states have not yet voted. The Commission does not plan to restore Brazilian beef eligibility because lifetime-compliance certification remains unresolved. Poultry importers cannot treat the proposal as an active authorization. Beef buyers face a distinct unresolved barrier. Brazilian cattle procurement remains tight. Platts reported shortened slaughter schedules as packers competed for finished cattle. Brazilian beef sellers and Chinese buyers remained apart on price after SIAL Paris. The Brazil Beef Marker was six thousand seven hundred eighty dollars per metric ton F-C-A Santos October 21st, unchanged.

HOST: Energy jumps as grains diverge. December West Texas Crude rose two thirty-two to ninety-nine forty-seven a barrel and November Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel jumped sixteen eighty-eight cents a gallon to four ninety-three Thursday. December corn fell two seventy-five cents to four sixty-one a bushel. December soybean meal eased one dollar to three forty-seven thirty a short ton while November soybeans gained seven seventy-five cents to twelve fifty-three a bushel. The October 19th retail diesel average was six twenty-eight a gallon, a different price basis from Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures. Low Mississippi water levels remain a potential barge constraint, with no new restriction confirmed. Futures gains do not establish higher delivered freight rates. Screwworm reaches wildlife and another beef cow. An elk harvested in Pecos County was confirmed infested October 21st, the first U.S. wildlife detection in the current response. Officials are modifying an existing Texas infested zone. Separately, New Mexico reported an affected beef cow in Otero County, distinct from earlier Grant County cases. Movement requirements remain tied to designated zones rather than broad assumptions about every border route. Producers moving cattle through affected zones face inspection and treatment-documentation requirements. The October 26th reopening at Columbus, New Mexico, remains conditional. An announced date is not confirmation of unrestricted cattle movements. Cattle price transparency changes Monday. USDA plans to publish a new five-state Southern Plains aggregate of negotiated cash-cattle transactions beginning October 26th. A prerelease survey expects fewer September cattle placements. Results remain pending. Procurement radar. Affected poultry origins. Watch. Destination-specific Brazilian restrictions remain in force. The proposed EU reopening is not yet authorization. Chicken cut pricing. Watch. Weekly breast and tender averages eased while boneless thighs advanced. Watch individual cuts rather than treating chicken as one price. Imported lean trim. Wait. Compare grade, frozen condition, Incoterm and arrival window. Indications are not confirmed delivered savings. Pork bellies. Hold. Review actual inventory against Thursday's belly-led increase without treating one day's recovery as broad pork strength. Screwworm-zone movements. Watch. Follow zone-specific movement requirements and the conditional Columbus crossing schedule. The week brought different kinds of market change. Animal-health restrictions altered legal shipment eligibility. Beef cutouts weakened despite smaller slaughter. And fuel futures rose while major feed inputs diverged. None is a universal signal for every protein buyer. Today's USDA reports will provide important new supply and demand indicators. Cattle on Feed will update October 1st feedlot inventories and September placements and marketings. Cold Storage will report frozen beef, pork and poultry inventories, while Poultry Slaughter will provide September production figures. Food Price Outlook will update consumer food-price expectations, including meat categories. These findings are not included in this morning's edition.

SHAWN: Next week begins with unresolved product-access questions and fresh USDA supply reports. Separate confirmed restrictions from expected market effects, and treat each protein and product on its own evidence. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Closing Bell Friday for October 23rd. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.