THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Monday Market Open | September 21, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 21, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Where are the cattle going to come from? That’s the question Friday’s Cattle on Feed report left me asking. August placements were down nine percent, roughly one hundred fifteen thousand head below expectations. We covered the numbers in our special report, but I keep coming back to what happens when those missing cattle would normally be ready for slaughter. And here’s what makes this market interesting. USDA fresh nineties are at four oh eight. Fifties are under ninety cents. And we have another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opening October first. There may be opportunities to get some buying done before the supply picture catches up with us. But six forty-four diesel can eat into a good purchase pretty quickly, and an import offer isn’t much good if it arrives after you need the meat. I’m looking at what I can buy now — and what I may wish I’d bought six months from now.

HOST: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report raised new questions about fed-cattle availability heading into twenty twenty-seven. Domestic fat trim remains inexpensive relative to lean. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opens October first. Elevated diesel costs are changing delivered protein economics. Pork bellies declined sharply. Chicken frames softened. Whole wings moved slightly higher.

SHAWN: USDA reported August placements of one point six one seven million head, down nine percent year over year and about one hundred fifteen thousand head below pre-report expectations. Lowest August placement total since the current series began in nineteen ninety-six. September first feedlot inventory eleven point one six three million, about one percent above last year. August marketings declined three percent to one point five one nine million. With about forty-three percent of August placements weighing eight hundred pounds or more, the timing of those cattle reaching slaughter will matter just as much as the headline placement number.

HOST: What concerns Shawn is the combination of fewer cattle entering feedlots and an industry already processing substantially fewer head. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point five percent. Beef production is down five point one. Heavier carcasses offset part of the slaughter reduction. They cannot replace every missing animal.

SHAWN: The domestic processing-beef market presents an interesting contrast. Latest national weekly fresh nineties four oh eight. Eighty-fives three twenty-nine. Fifties under ninety cents. For a manufacturer producing seventy percent lean ground beef, equal pounds of nineties and fifties generate a theoretical raw-material cost of about two forty-nine a pound before freight, processing, shrink, and margin. We can have a legitimate longer-term cattle supply problem and still find interesting purchasing economics in the current ingredient market. Kansas State’s Glynn Tonsor points to continued consumer interest in beef taste and quality, while higher prices put more pressure on lower-income households. I would not assume premium steaks and value-oriented ground beef will respond identically.

HOST: Chicken. Modest increase in the national whole-bird average. Parts moved in different directions. Frames declined two oh seven cents to seven fifty-nine cents. For processors using frames in mechanically separated chicken and other recovery applications, that could improve raw-material economics. Recovery yield, processing expense, and finished-product value determine how much of the lower purchase price reaches the bottom line. Whole wings averaged a dollar eleven, up slightly. Wing prices remain a separate consideration for foodservice as fall sports demand develops. Boneless skinless breast and bulk leg quarters also moved higher. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is running one point two percent above last year. A small reduction in feed cost can be erased by deterioration in bird performance. The relevant measure is cost per pound of saleable chicken, not simply the lowest-priced ration.

SHAWN: Pork. Bellies declined thirty thirty-one cents. Hams increased five twenty-one cents. Picnics gained two forty. A buyer purchasing bellies experienced a substantially different market from one buying ham or picnic. The overall cutout declined. That movement should not be applied indiscriminately across the carcass. Weekly hog slaughter two point four nine zero million. Year-to-date slaughter remains one percent below last year. Pork production nearly unchanged, down just one-tenth. Product mix and promotional timing may matter more than the overall cutout suggests.

HOST: Imported lean remains central heading into October. The additional tariff-rate quota is three hundred thousand metric tons in three one-hundred-thousand-ton tranches. The second opens October first. The third opens October thirty-first, following the October thirtieth close of the second tranche. First-come, first-served in the other-countries-or-areas category.

SHAWN: September seventeenth Platts assessments: imported nineties about three nineteen C I F U.S. East Coast and three oh eight F C A East Coast, versus USDA domestic fresh nineties weekly average of four oh eight. Those assessments are not interchangeable with domestic fresh prices or a delivered plant quote. The difference still warrants attention from manufacturers that can use frozen imported lean. Platts Brazil Beef Marker six thousand eight hundred fifty dollars a metric ton. China continues to provide an important outlet. Additional U.S. quota access does not guarantee packers will redirect every available load toward American buyers. Material entering under the October quota still has to move through the supply chain before it hits a production schedule.

HOST: Santa Teresa was scheduled for a September twenty-fourth reopening, with New World screwworm surveillance remaining central. Any additional Mexican feeder cattle would still require feeding before contributing to finished-cattle availability. In pork, N P P C continues to seek federal action on California Proposition Twelve. Packers and Stockyards investigations and proposed poultry grower-rule changes remain on the calendar. Announced enforcement and proposed rules should not be confused with actual changes in processing capacity.

SHAWN: The purchasing question is how much of a manufacturer’s forward beef requirement can be covered at today’s ingredient economics without taking on unnecessary inventory, freight, or delivery risk. For plants that can use both domestic fresh and imported frozen lean, examine forward requirements rather than evaluating every load independently. Brownfield reported national diesel at six forty-four a gallon, versus three seventy a year earlier. An Indiana farmer described using five hundred to one thousand gallons daily during harvest. At that consumption, the year-over-year difference is an illustrative additional one thousand three hundred seventy to two thousand seven hundred forty dollars a day. Those expenses extend through grain hauling, feed delivery, livestock transportation, and refrigerated protein distribution. A favorable raw-material quote can look considerably different when the delivered economics are calculated.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-two. Select three fifty-three. Fresh nineties four oh eight. Eighty-fives three twenty-nine. Fifties eighty-nine cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. Bellies ninety cents, down thirty cents. Whole bird one seventeen. Frames seven fifty-nine cents. October live cattle two fifteen ninety-two. October crude one hundred thirty. Latest week: cattle slaughter five hundred twenty-nine thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs two point four nine million, down one percent. Chicken slaughter up one point two. Beef production down five point one. Pork production down one-tenth.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report gave us a better look at what may be coming down the road, but the next several weeks could be just as interesting for buyers. Domestic fifties are under ninety cents. Imported lean remains worth examining. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of quota opens October first. Those are real considerations for anyone buying beef to grind. I wouldn’t assume today’s ingredient market will look the same when the cattle placed — or not placed — in August would normally be reaching slaughter. There may be some buying decisions made this fall that look pretty smart six months from now. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for September 21, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.