THE PROTEIN PULSE

Taco Meat Tuesday | October 20th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for October 20th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Here's what caught my attention Monday. Cattle cost more, processors ran more head, and Choice beef still lost ground. Select went the other direction. That's a difficult combination to manage. Packers have more product to sell, but higher cattle costs don't disappear because a customer refuses an offer. Pork is presenting a similar challenge. Bellies and hams weakened even with fewer hogs processed last week. In chicken, breasts and thighs are moving in opposite directions. Overseas, suppliers are competing for customers in markets that don't necessarily want the same products. None of those developments means the entire protein market is getting cheaper. They tell me something more useful. The next change in buying leverage won't arrive evenly. It will show up in particular products, from particular suppliers, for particular delivery dates. I want to know who's holding the pounds, who's buying them, and how long each side can wait. That's where the next negotiation gets interesting.

HOST: Brazil has confirmed Newcastle disease at a commercial turkey operation in Santa Catarina, triggering reported trade responses from important poultry customers. Separately, Reuters reports Chinese chicken exporters challenging established suppliers across several international markets. USDA FSIS announced a major Kayem ready-to-eat meat and poultry recall following a storage-temperature problem. New Mexico confirmed additional New World screwworm cases, keeping livestock surveillance and border-movement requirements in focus. In domestic markets, cash cattle prices strengthened while Choice boxed beef declined and Select advanced. Pork bellies and picnics weakened, and chicken breasts and thighs moved in opposite directions. U.S. pork export demand remains uneven by destination, while corn harvest progress trails historical levels.

SHAWN: USDA's latest five-area negotiated live F-O-B steer average reached two twenty-four nineteen, up from two twenty fourteen the previous reporting week. Dressed delivered steers advanced to three fifty-two fifty-two from three forty-five sixty-six. Choice boxed beef declined seventy-three cents to three seventy-one fifty-eight. Select gained six eighty-six to three fifty-nine ninety-one. The Choice Select spread narrowed to eleven sixty-seven. Choice ribs remained at six seventy-three fifty-nine. Steiner Consulting's latest Daily Livestock Report described strong seasonal rib demand as holiday buyers accumulated inventory. Its report also described improved packer margins following difficult summer conditions. Estimated cattle slaughter increased to five hundred fifty-three thousand head for the week ended October 17th, compared with five hundred thirty-five thousand the preceding week. The additional volume comes against a backdrop of reduced industry processing capacity and continued constraints on cattle supplies. Manufacturing beef moved differently from the boxed-beef grade market. USDA's national fresh F-O-B plant averages put nineties at three ninety, down six seventy, and eighty-fives at three sixteen, up thirty-five. Fresh fifties averaged ninety and sixty-fives one fifty-two. Imported frozen lean remains a separate sourcing market. Platts' October 16th frozen nineties assessments were three thirteen C-I-F U.S. East Coast and three oh five F-C-A East Coast. Those port assessments differ in product condition and delivery basis from domestic fresh F-O-B plant quotations.

HOST: Brazilian Agriculture Minister André de Paula confirmed a Newcastle disease outbreak at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina. Authorities initiated containment measures and restrictions on bird movements around the affected operation. Reuters reported that Mexico suspended poultry imports from Brazil and that Brazilian industry association ABPA voluntarily halted exports to China pending clarification of trade requirements. The precise product and geographic scope of those measures remains subject to official destination-country documentation. The outbreak is an immediate export-access development for Brazil, a leading poultry supplier. The critical questions are whether restrictions remain localized, how quickly the outbreak is contained and when affected trade can resume. Separately, Reuters reported that Chinese poultry processors are increasing exports through competitive pricing and expanded processing capacity. An international trader described Chinese breast and leg-quarter offers ten to twenty percent below Brazilian alternatives in selected African markets. Chinese processors are also competing in European processed-poultry markets. The reported overseas quotations are not U.S. domestic chicken prices. Actual international order changes, customer specifications and trade eligibility will determine the commercial impact. Domestic chicken prices remain mixed. USDA's latest weekly averages placed boneless skinless breasts at one seventeen, down one seventy-five, and whole wings at one oh nine, down one twenty. Boneless skinless thighs increased five thirty-eight to one seventy-three, while bulk leg quarters averaged fifty-four. USDA's daily commentary described boneless breasts as weak, tenders and wings as soft, and dark meat as clearing well.

SHAWN: USDA's carcass cutout declined one sixteen to seventy-nine thirty-nine. Bellies fell four twenty-one to eighty-six ninety-three. Picnics lost three seventy-four to sixty-three ninety-six. Hams eased eighty-five cents to sixty-five twenty-seven. Loins and ribs strengthened. Estimated hog slaughter totaled two point five five three million head for the week ended October 17th, down from two point six one nine million the preceding week. Steiner Consulting reported that some planned processing may have been deferred because packers were having difficulty moving boxed pork. That remains Steiner's industry assessment, not a USDA-confirmed explanation for lower slaughter. The national negotiated barrow-and-gilt carcass-base quotation increased two fifty-one to sixty-nine sixty Monday. Negotiated hog purchases represent one purchasing category and should not be treated as a comprehensive packer-cost measure. Current wholesale business will determine whether the week's lower slaughter is followed by better product movement. Bellies and hams deserve particular attention because both weakened despite reduced processing.

HOST: USMEF reported August pork export volume to Mexico down twelve percent year over year. January through August shipments were three percent below the previous year's record pace. Central America recorded an eighteen percent August increase. January through August exports reached one hundred thirty thousand nine hundred eighty-seven metric tons, up eleven percent, valued at four hundred thirty-two point three million dollars, up fifteen percent. Colombia's August volume increased thirty-four percent. Those differences matter to exporters and processors managing destination-specific product demand. Growth in one region does not necessarily replace orders for the same cuts in another. USDA's Crop Progress report placed national corn harvest at forty-four percent, versus a fifty-two percent five-year average. Iowa reached twenty-six percent, compared with its fifty percent average. The delayed fieldwork is important for grain handlers, feed suppliers and livestock operations managing regional delivery schedules. It does not establish a national corn shortage. USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service announced a Class I recall involving approximately one point five eight four million pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry because of potential temperature abuse during storage. The affected products were distributed to retail and foodservice locations throughout the United States and to Hong Kong. FSIS reported that an investigation followed a complaint concerning warm product temperatures and identified warehouse-cooler deviations. Companies handling affected inventory should consult FSIS Recall zero two six dash two zero two six for the specific labels, establishment information, lots and disposition instructions. State animal-health authorities confirmed two more New World screwworm cases in Grant County, involving a horse and a calf. Surveillance and response activity expanded around the affected locations. The findings are relevant to animal-health controls and livestock movement, including the developing situation along the Mexican cattle border. They do not independently establish a new crossing closure or reopening. Current movement authorization must come from the responsible agencies.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Immediate recall exposure. Check inventories and shipments against the official Kayem affected-product list. Poultry trade. Confirm destination eligibility and current export arrangements where Brazilian restrictions affect contracted supplies. Beef and pork coverage. Obtain cut-specific offers and confirm actual available quantities and processing schedules, particularly for premium beef ribs and pork bellies and hams. Feed and logistics. Review local corn-delivery conditions, grain basis and refrigerated-freight quotations against upcoming commitments. What I'm watching. Official updates to Brazil's Newcastle disease restrictions and affected export destinations. Evidence of new international poultry orders moving toward Chinese suppliers. Further Kayem recall developments and distribution findings. Screwworm surveillance results and authorized cattle-movement changes. Wholesale beef availability following increased cattle slaughter. Pork plant schedules and belly and ham movement. Friday's Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage reports. Brazil's Newcastle disease outbreak has already disrupted poultry trade arrangements. The next official decisions on export eligibility will determine how widely those restrictions extend and which customers must find alternative supplies. The Kayem recall demands immediate action across affected inventories and distribution channels. New Mexico's additional screwworm detections keep livestock movement and border surveillance firmly on the industry's agenda. In domestic markets, increased beef processing has not produced uniform wholesale price relief, and reduced hog slaughter has not lifted weak pork primals. Buyers should judge availability through current product offers rather than assume those market relationships have changed. Today's most consequential news is happening in processing plants, export markets and distribution channels as well as on the commodity boards. Those developments deserve the industry's attention before they become tomorrow's supply problems. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Taco Meat Tuesday for October 20th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.