THE PROTEIN PULSE

Taco Meat Tuesday | October 13th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for October 13th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The next move in protein may not come from Chicago or the Southern Plains. It may come from overseas. Brazil is looking for new beef customers as China limits imports and Europe closes its doors. China is buying less foreign pork, and Spain is redirecting product following disease-related trade restrictions. That's a lot of meat looking for a home, and buyers should be paying attention. I'm not suggesting we'll suddenly see cheaper beef or pork. But when major exporters start competing for different customers, pricing opportunities can develop. And those opportunities may show up where we least expect them. We've been talking about cattle numbers long enough. This week I'm more interested in who is selling, who's buying, and whether those shifts start changing the offers we see here at home. Remember, sometimes the biggest opportunities aren't created by what happens here, but by what's changing somewhere else.

HOST: Pork opened the week with a two forty-seven cutout increase. Choice beef strengthened, and changing international trade conditions are creating new questions about protein competition. JBS is highlighting opportunities in prepared protein, while revised USDA hog-farrowing comparisons deserve attention heading into 2027. For buyers, the immediate priorities are lean-beef replacement costs, whether pork's wholesale recovery holds, and how changing consumer and export demand affect purchasing opportunities.

SHAWN: Choice boxed beef advanced two twenty-one Monday to three seventy-five fifty-six. Select declined seventeen cents to three fifty-four thirteen. The Choice Select spread widened to twenty-one forty-three. December live cattle finished at two twenty-six sixty, down forty-five cents, while the latest five-area weekly live F-O-B average stood at two twenty twenty. Cattle slaughter remains seven point four percent below last year. Fresh domestic nineties averaged three ninety-six. Eighty-fives at three thirty-four. Sixty-fives at one fifty-two. Fifties at eighty-seven cents. Earlier imported frozen nineties indications near three seventeen to three nineteen suggest a market worth watching, although those assessments cannot be directly compared with Monday's fresh domestic quotations. At the same time, Brazilian exporters face changing market access in China and Europe. That could affect competition in international beef markets, although it does not establish additional U.S. availability or lower domestic prices. USDA forecasts U.S. beef imports declining three percent in 2027 under current quota assumptions. For ground-beef processors, the opportunity is to watch whether international competition translates into attractive delivered quotations. The spread between published market assessments is not necessarily the spread available to an individual buyer.

HOST: Chicken continues to provide competitive purchasing options, with young-chicken slaughter running one point three percent above last year. USDA's October 5th through 9th weekly averages placed boneless skinless breasts at one eighteen, tenderloins at one thirteen fifty, whole wings at one ten sixty, boneless skinless thighs at one sixty-eight, and bulk leg quarters at fifty-three cents. An interesting development is coming from JBS, where prepared-foods leadership sees growing protein interest among younger consumers and GLP-1 users as an opportunity across chicken, pork and beef. That makes product innovation and convenience increasingly relevant to processors and foodservice operators. Consumer interest in protein may create opportunities beyond traditional commodity cuts, although actual sales and margins will determine which products succeed. Reported avian influenza cases involving Minnesota turkey breeders and commercial poultry in Canada remain worth monitoring. These reports do not establish a direct disruption to U.S. broiler supplies. Buyers should continue evaluating chicken on cut-specific economics while watching where demand for prepared and value-added products is developing.

SHAWN: Pork delivered Monday's strongest wholesale move. The carcass cutout advanced two forty-seven to eighty-two ninety-seven, with five of six primals gaining ground. Hams increased three thirty-three to seventy-two sixty-two. Picnics rose two ninety-three to sixty-five fifty-seven. Loins climbed two eighty-three to eighty-three seventy-one. Bellies added two oh six to ninety-one thirty-three. Ribs declined fifty-five cents to one fifty oh four. The question now is whether that improvement carries through the week or proves to be another short-lived recovery. Monday's estimated hog slaughter was four hundred ninety-eight thousand head. Year-to-date slaughter remains zero point nine percent below last year, while the latest weekly carcass-weight average was two hundred sixteen point four pounds, up one point one pounds from a year earlier. Looking further ahead, USDA reported December through February farrowing intentions two point one percent above the comparable earlier period. Economist Lee Schulz has pointed out that downward revisions to the comparison year complicate how that increase should be interpreted when projecting 2027 hog availability. A higher percentage does not automatically tell us how many additional market hogs will become available. A separate forward weaner-pig model also points to challenging producer economics, with a projected ninety-nine cent a head loss under its March 2027 assumptions. For buyers, near-term pork coverage should still be driven by actual primal movement and replacement costs, not distant supply projections.

HOST: International protein competition is changing. USDA forecasts Brazilian beef exports declining from four point two million metric tons in 2026 to four point one million in 2027, with restrictions in important destination markets affecting the outlook. China's pork imports are projected at eight hundred twenty thousand metric tons in 2027, down two percent. Disease-related restrictions affecting Spanish pork add another complication to international trade patterns. These developments could increase competition in alternative export markets, with implications for U.S. protein sellers and buyers. The magnitude and direction of any price effects remain uncertain. December corn closed Monday at four eighty-three, up three and a quarter cents, while December soybean meal advanced three ten to three sixty-eight seventy. Changing trade patterns deserve attention, but forecasts should not be mistaken for completed shipments or confirmed price moves. September's temporary U.S. beef tariff-rate quota expansion authorized an additional one hundred thousand metric tons of access. A published compilation reported thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered through September 28th, representing approximately thirty-seven point five percent of the allocation at that point. Those preliminary figures do not establish final September utilization or how much additional beef entered the market because of the policy. The U.S. lamb-import investigation also remains active, with an October 16th hearing scheduled. No final remedy has been established.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef: watch domestic processing-beef values against comparable imported quotations. Changing export competition could create opportunities worth examining. Pork: reevaluate ham, belly and loin replacement costs following Monday's recovery. Watch for confirmation in subsequent trading. Chicken: follow prepared-protein demand and changing cut economics as processors pursue higher-value product opportunities. Freight: keep refrigerated transportation costs and applicable fuel surcharges in delivered-cost calculations. What I'm watching. Whether the pork cutout maintains Monday's gains. Updated beef-import utilization and processing-beef quotations. Where Brazilian beef exports move as market access changes. Revisions to hog-farrowing intentions and future supply expectations. Evidence that consumer interest in prepared protein is translating into stronger product demand. Monday's pork rebound was worth noticing. So are JBS's ambitions in prepared protein and the changing international trade outlook. But the real opportunity isn't in repeating what we already know about cattle supplies or assuming overseas developments will immediately change U.S. prices. It's recognizing which developments are new, which are actually affecting today's market, and where the next opportunity could emerge. The numbers tell us where the market stands. Knowing which ones could change tomorrow is what gives buyers an advantage. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Taco Meat Tuesday for October 13th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.