THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Taco Meat Tuesday | October 6th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for October 6th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Ohhhhh yeahhh! Macho Man Randy Savage was selling Slim Jims before we started putting protein on just about everything. Today, meat sticks are competing for that same protein dollar with shakes, bars, yogurt and foods that have protein added to them. We already sell the real thing. But that alone doesn't mean we get the sale. FATTY is growing while Slim Jim is working to regain momentum. That tells me the appetite for protein is there, but consumers still choose the product, not just the category. I see an opportunity for our industry to earn more eating occasions outside breakfast, lunch and dinner. We spend plenty of time talking about the price of beef. We should also be asking how to make meat an easier choice when someone reaches for protein between meals.

HOST: Executive summary. Recovered processing has returned more beef to a cautious wholesale market. Ribs remain difficult to cover, while several loin and round items offer better negotiating opportunities. Imported lean continues to diverge by origin and delivery window. Chicken breasts and wings softened in the latest weekly report as boneless thighs strengthened. Pork's Monday rebound improved the tone, with gains concentrated in loins, picnics, ribs and bellies.

SHAWN: Cattle processing recovered last week, with slaughter reaching five hundred forty-eight thousand head — sixty-four thousand more than the previous week. That restored a meaningful amount of product after disruptions. Monday's cutouts rebounded. Choice closed at three seventy-eight twenty-six, up four oh seven. Select at three fifty-eight fifty-seven, up four oh eight. The spread is nineteen sixty-nine. Choice remained below the previous Monday's close. More beef is reaching buyers who continue to purchase largely for immediate needs. Ribs remain the clearest exception. Light material is short, and Choice ribs continue to hold elevated prices. Buyers with specific size requirements or committed holiday business have less flexibility than the broader cutout suggests. Peeled sirloin muscle outs, top butts and boneless strips are more accessible. Expensive ribs have not generated substantial substitution into loins, leaving sellers with available loin inventory and limited spillover demand.

HOST: Rounds offer more immediate purchasing leverage. Roasting demand has not developed enough to sustain previous support, and sellers discounted lingering inventories toward the weekend. The best opportunities involve a particular item, shipment date or inventory position. Grinding supplies became more balanced through the week, with some fattier blends remaining in inventory. Domestic lean boneless strengthened Monday while eighty-five percent trim weakened. Fresh nineties four oh two. Fresh eighty-fives three twenty-seven. Fresh fifties ninety-six cents, from October 2nd. Steer and heifer ground beef eighty-one percent, three thirty-nine. Eighty-five percent, four oh seven. That divergence changes blend economics, especially where imported lean can cover the required production week.

SHAWN: South American nineties were indicated at three oh five to three twelve, free on board Philadelphia, for second-half October and November delivery. Australian and New Zealand cow product was indicated at three thirty-seven to three forty-two on an East Coast port basis. November Australia and New Zealand shipment indications were around three twenty, cost insurance and freight Philadelphia. Nearby South American product offers competitive coverage, but future Oceania replacement supply faces a different demand picture. Chinese buying of New Zealand beef could limit the volume available to U.S. buyers. Nearby availability and forward replacement costs are moving on different tracks. Estimated packer margins remained positive for a seventh consecutive week. Restored throughput is now bringing more beef into a market where purchasing remains cautious. Cash cattle reported Monday, from October 2nd trades: steers live, over eighty percent Choice, two nineteen oh one. All beef-type steers and heifers, two eighteen ninety-nine.

HOST: Chicken. The latest weekly market shows softer boneless skinless breasts and whole wings alongside firmer boneless skinless thighs. Tenderloins were nearly steady. Breast one nineteen, down about four cents. Wings one oh nine, down about two cents. Thighs one sixty-seven, up about seven cents. Tenderloins one twelve. Whole bird one eighteen, up about a penny. Leg quarters fifty-three cents. Breast and wing buyers have a better basis for testing offers, while thigh programs face higher replacement costs. Bell and Evans' one hundred fifty-two million dollar Pennsylvania expansion adds further-processing and packaging space and plans for at least three hundred eighty new jobs over three years. The investment strengthens branded antibiotic-free and organic programs, where qualified supply remains a separate sourcing requirement from conventional chicken. KFC's prototype restaurant in McKinney, Texas, tests breakfast, late-night hours and additional chicken formats. Broader adoption would create new recurring requirements across more dayparts. Disease exposure remains concentrated in Manitoba, where eight commercial poultry detections have been listed since September 10th. The case count does not quantify lost production.

SHAWN: Monday's pork cutout recovered to eighty-six cents, up about a cent and a half, as loins, picnics, ribs and bellies advanced, offsetting lower hams and butts. Loins eighty-six. Picnics seventy-one cents. Ribs one fifty-two. Bellies ninety-six cents. Hams seventy-eight. Butts one oh nine. Forty-twos sixty-six cents. Seventy-twos eighty-four. National negotiated hogs seventy-seven cents, on one thousand five hundred thirty-nine head. Finalized weekly hog slaughter was two point five five three million head, nearly unchanged from the previous week. Better sales, particularly in hams and bellies as fourth-quarter demand develops, will determine whether Monday's recovery holds. Bacon development continues through differentiated smoke, sweet-heat flavors and new formats. Forward finishing economics improved as feed costs eased. The latest weaner model placed the all-in purchase breakeven at twenty-two forty-six a head against a twenty-three oh three cash average, leaving a projected fifty-seven cent a head loss. Close to breakeven, with little room for unfavorable performance.

HOST: China's Golden Week holiday runs through October 7th. Trading activity is expected to recover later in the month. January arrivals also involve substantial financing exposure. Reported terms include advance payments of fifty to sixty percent in October for Brazilian beef arriving in January. That commits cash months before delivery. Brazilian poultry could regain European Union access following a favorable antimicrobial-control audit. Formal approval is still required, and no reopening date was announced. Beef access remains a separate compliance matter. Cattle producers are opposing dismissal of individual antitrust claims against major beef processors after their proposed class was not certified. The allegations remain unresolved. Diesel policy relief remains subject to physical supply constraints. Monday's falling crude price also did not produce a matching decline in diesel futures. November West Texas Crude closed at eighty-nine forty-three, down a dollar sixty-eight. Freight savings will depend on actual carrier rates and fuel surcharges.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Ribs: confirm light-specification availability and committed holiday coverage. Loins and rounds: seek offers tied to customer features or processing requirements. Grinding: recalculate approved formulations using domestic components and imported offers for the same production week. Chicken: test breast and wing offers separately from firmer boneless thighs. Feed: Friday's WASDE is the next checkpoint. Monday slaughter: cattle one hundred five thousand, year to date down seven point five percent. Hogs four hundred ninety-three thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point three million, up one point three percent. December live cattle two nineteen ninety-eight, down a dollar fifty. November feeders three thirty oh one, down a dollar. December lean hogs seventy ninety-five, up eighty-two cents. December corn four ninety-seven. November soybeans twelve eighty-one.

HOST: Bottom line. Recovered processing has shifted some leverage toward beef buyers, with the clearest opportunities in available loins and discounted rounds. Light ribs remain the exception. If sellers clear the additional production without further concessions, that leverage will narrow. Continued inventory pressure would extend it.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Taco Meat Tuesday for October 6th, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.