THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Special Report | September 25, 2026

Fewer hogs. Record productivity.

USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs — September 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is a Special Report for September 25, 2026, from The Sparks Group. USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report: fewer hogs, record productivity.

SHAWN: I’ve spent plenty of time talking about cattle numbers and how heavier carcasses have helped make up for fewer animals. Yesterday’s Hogs and Pigs report reminded me that pork is a different animal, literally. The hog herd is down two percent, but producers are saving a record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. That’s impressive productivity. The problem is that farrowings are declining faster than those gains can make up for. And unlike cattle, hog carcass weights haven’t changed much in more than a decade. Chicken has gone the other direction, producing considerably more pounds per bird. Now, before anybody starts celebrating higher pork prices, remember that somebody still has to buy the meat. We’ve been making up for fewer cattle with heavier carcasses. Don’t count on the hog industry pulling that same rabbit out of the hat.

HOST: USDA’s September twenty-fourth Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimates the U.S. herd at seventy-four point three oh two million head — about one point one million fewer than last September. Market hog inventories declined across every weight category. Record litter productivity partially offset reduced summer farrowings. Fall farrowing intentions remain lower. Winter intentions suggest some recovery. The commercial distinction is what happens when those hogs reach the packing plant. Unlike cattle and chicken, pork has seen relatively little recent growth in pounds per slaughter animal. That makes the smaller hog population particularly relevant when evaluating pork production and forward raw-material availability.

SHAWN: The numbers. Total hogs and pigs seventy-four point three oh two million versus seventy-five point four three eight last year — down one point five percent. USDA rounds the headline inventory decline to two percent. Breeding inventory five point eight seven five million, down one percent. Market hogs sixty-eight point four two seven million, down one point five. Hogs one hundred eighty pounds and over twelve point four four three million, down one point six. Under fifty pounds twenty-one point eight six six million, down one point six. June through August farrowings two point eight eight six million, down two point seven. Summer pig crop thirty-four point five oh eight million, down one point five. Pigs saved per litter eleven point nine six, up from eleven point eight two — a record.

HOST: Summer farrowings declined about seventy-nine thousand head. The productivity gain helped cushion that. Nevertheless, the summer pig crop declined about five hundred thirty-six thousand head. Animals one hundred eighty pounds and over declined about two hundred seven thousand. The combined population under one hundred twenty pounds fell about six hundred fifty-two thousand. September inventories did increase two percent from June, so the normal seasonal buildup is taking place. There are simply fewer animals in the production system than a year ago. The industry is getting better at producing pigs. It just isn’t producing enough additional pigs per litter to completely offset fewer farrowings.

SHAWN: We’ve talked extensively about how heavier cattle have helped offset declining slaughter. Chicken has followed a similar longer-term path. Pork is a different story. Twenty years of animal weights. Steer dressed weight from eight hundred seventeen pounds in two thousand five to nine hundred fifty-five in twenty twenty-five — up sixteen point nine percent. Hog dressed weight from two hundred one to two hundred fifteen — up seven percent. Chicken average live weight from five point three seven to six point six two — up twenty-three point three percent. The longer-term gains in hog weights are real. The more revealing comparison is recent history. Average hog dressed weights reached about two hundred fourteen pounds in twenty fourteen. By twenty twenty-five, they averaged about two hundred fifteen. One pound in eleven years. Cattle carcass weights have continued climbing. Chicken has seen substantial long-term weight gains. Pork hasn’t had that same recent increase in pounds per slaughter animal.

HOST: If cattle slaughter declines, heavier carcasses can replace a portion of the missing beef tonnage. We’ve been watching that happen. If hog slaughter declines, recent history doesn’t give us much reason to expect the same degree of compensation from heavier carcasses. Pork’s productivity story has been more pigs per litter, not significantly more pounds per hog. That’s what makes the September inventory report more meaningful than the headline decline alone.

SHAWN: What’s coming in twenty twenty-seven. September through November intended farrowings two point eight five five million, down one point eight percent — about fifty-two thousand fewer fall farrowings. December twenty twenty-six through February twenty twenty-seven intended farrowings two point seven nine five million, up two point one percent — about fifty-eight thousand additional winter farrowings. The smaller summer pig crop is already established. Reduced fall intentions extend the lower-production picture into another group of hogs that would be marketed during twenty twenty-seven. Winter intentions suggest some recovery, but that remains planned production rather than pigs already in the system. I wouldn’t read this report as a warning that pork will be short throughout twenty twenty-seven. But I wouldn’t dismiss the smaller summer pig crop simply because winter intentions show some recovery, either. The summer pig crop is a reported production fact. The winter recovery is still an intention.

HOST: Regional supply. Iowa reported about seven hundred thousand fewer hogs. North Carolina declined four hundred thousand. Illinois fell three hundred thousand. Minnesota moved the other way, adding about four hundred thousand. USDA also reports that hogs under contract owned by operations with more than five thousand head, but raised by contractees, represented fifty-six percent of national inventory, up four percent from the previous year. The national decline is not evenly distributed.

SHAWN: Radar. Market hog inventories are down about one point five percent, and pork doesn’t have the same recent carcass-weight cushion we’ve been discussing in beef. If fewer hogs reach the packing plant and carcass weights remain relatively stable, fewer pounds of pork will follow. For processors, fewer hogs also raise questions about plant utilization and the cost of spreading fixed expenses across available production. The smaller summer pig crop and lower fall farrowing intentions deserve attention for procurement extending into twenty twenty-seven. Winter intentions offer some potential recovery. Buyers shouldn’t treat planned production later in the year as though those animals are already available.

HOST: A smaller hog population can influence livestock procurement costs without producing equivalent increases in wholesale pork values. A packer can pay more for a hog without getting proportionately more for the pork. Loins, bellies, picnics, and trim still have to find buyers at prices that support the carcass value. Fewer hogs don’t guarantee better packer margins. Depending on livestock costs and wholesale demand, the opposite can happen. Beef remains constrained by cattle availability. Chicken has benefited from substantial gains in pounds per bird. If pork production contracts, its relative value against beef and chicken becomes increasingly relevant. For customers with formulation flexibility, the relationship among pork trim, beef trim, and chicken raw-material costs will be worth following. The inventory report tells us how many hogs are in the system. Slaughter, production, and the USDA pork markets will tell us what that means for the cost of meat.

SHAWN: Bottom line. The September report confirms about one point one million fewer hogs than a year ago. Producers are getting more pigs per litter, but those productivity gains haven’t completely offset fewer farrowings. The bigger distinction is what happens when those hogs reach the packing plant. We’ve watched heavier cattle carcasses help offset declining slaughter, and chicken has experienced substantial long-term gains in weight per bird. Pork hasn’t followed that same recent path. If the hogs aren’t there, history doesn’t give us much reason to expect heavier carcasses to replace the missing production. The pork industry has gotten better at producing pigs. It hasn’t gotten substantially better at producing more pounds per hog. That’s what makes this inventory report worth paying attention to. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Special Report for September 25, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.