THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Monday Market Open | September 28, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 28, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Here is the irony in beef this morning: we are finally reopening another valve for cattle supply just as a new operational risk is showing up at the packing plant. Santa Teresa is open again. That should eventually help feeder availability, but four hundred eight head on day one is not enough to change the market. At the same time, stepped-up federal immigration enforcement is disrupting labor and cattle movement across parts of the Southern Plains. Whether you support the policy or not, delayed cattle and reduced plant staffing can mean fewer kills, fewer boxes, and higher cost per head. Two days do not make a trend. But in a cattle market already running short on headcount, it does not take much operational disruption to matter.

HOST: The most interesting beef number this morning may not be total slaughter. Hales Trading estimates heifer slaughter at one hundred thirty-four thousand five hundred head — the lowest non-holiday weekly total since May ninth, twenty twenty. Since the beginning of the year, Hales estimates heifer slaughter is eight hundred eleven thousand head below last year, compared with steer slaughter down five hundred fifty-two thousand. That does not prove the herd rebuild is fully underway. After months of talking about what eventually has to happen, fewer females are actually entering slaughter.

SHAWN: Hales believes some beef heifers are already being retained and says retention could accelerate in twenty twenty-seven if winter and spring moisture supports grass. Weekly cattle slaughter fell to four hundred eighty-four thousand, down eight point five percent on the week and thirteen point four year over year. Beef production fell to four hundred thirty point one million pounds, down eight point four on the week and twelve point five year over year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter twenty million, down seven point seven. Year-to-date beef production seventeen point eight five one billion pounds, down five point three.

HOST: The grind. Weekly processing-beef averages. Fresh nineties four ten ninety-three, up two fifty-three cents on the week. Eighty-fives three sixteen sixty-four, down twelve oh three cents. Fifties eighty-seven seventy-seven cents, down a cent nineteen. The ninety-fifty spread is three twenty-three sixteen a pound. Cheap fat does not make lean cheap. Monday’s formulated-sales report: fourteen point four six million pounds of formulated fresh fifty percent trim at eighty-eight eighty-five cents.

SHAWN: Lower kills did not hurt packer economics last week. Hales estimates calculated margins at plus one sixty to plus one eighty-five a head, roughly forty dollars stronger on the week and the sixth consecutive week of positive calculated packer margins. Hales’ weekly Choice average was three seventy-seven fifty, up three twenty-four from the previous week. Fewer cattle through the plant can tighten beef availability. If boxed-beef values strengthen faster than cattle costs, packers can still improve margins on lower throughput.

HOST: Santa Teresa is moving Mexican cattle again. Four hundred eight head on the first day is not enough volume to materially change feeder availability. The reopening matters. The volume matters more. The Texas Cattle Feeders Association, Kansas Livestock Association, and Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association reported workforce disruption and delays moving thousands of cattle to processors amid federal immigration enforcement. D H S said ice was not conducting worksite operations in Kansas. The response cited by the Texas Tribune did not address Texas or Oklahoma. For the market, the consequence is physical: fewer cattle through the plant can mean fewer boxes, disrupted fabrication schedules, and fixed costs spread across fewer head. Cattle held back can also accumulate additional feed, yardage, and logistics expense.

SHAWN: Chicken continues to provide volume. The USDA whole-bird composite averaged a dollar sixteen forty-five, down thirty-six hundredths of a cent on the week. Parts were mixed. Boneless thighs strengthened. Tenderloins, leg quarters, and wings softened. W O Gs generally steady, light supplies, adequate floor stocks. Year-to-date chicken slaughter seven point one oh three billion, up one point one percent. Mexico continues to report no active H P A I outbreaks in commercial poultry, although H five N one and H seven N three detections remain present in wild birds.

HOST: Pork has a different setup. Weekly cutout eighty-seven thirty-one cents, down thirty-two hundredths. Loins, butts, picnics, and ribs declined. Hams and bellies strengthened. Forward supply is beginning to look tighter. Total hog numbers down about one point five percent year over year. Breeding herd roughly one percent lower. June through August farrowings down two point seven. Pig crop down one point five. At the same time, last week’s hog slaughter reached two point five five two million, up two point seven on the week and eight-tenths year over year. Pork production five hundred forty-two point nine million pounds, up three percent on the week and one-tenth year over year. Supply may become more supportive. Demand still has to show up.

SHAWN: Soybeans are the immediate feed-market story Monday morning. The Q T Wright overnight note: corn down five cents, soybeans down twenty-three, wheat down six. China’s tariff-reduction list covers a broad range of U.S. agricultural goods, including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, soy oil, and soymeal. Whole soybeans were excluded and remain subject to an additional ten percent tariff. USDA continues to support additional small and regional beef-processing capacity. The Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers program provides five hundred million dollars in temporary support for qualifying small, independent, and mid-sized federally inspected beef slaughter facilities. That can preserve regional slaughter options. It does not replace the throughput of the major fed-beef plants. Diesel at the six fifty-one a gallon national average cited in the pipeline material means cattle hauling and refrigerated freight are absorbing additional cost before product reaches the customer.

HOST: The protein boom is moving beyond nutrition claims and into product design. The New York Times reported thirty-seven thousand two hundred thirty-two products carrying front-of-package protein claims and roughly ninety billion dollars in consumer spending on protein-positioned products over the last year. Cargill’s burger research: fifty-one percent want a burger that is both juicy and fresh. Forty-eight percent cited taste as their primary reason for ordering a burger. Forty percent said high-quality beef influences the decision. Cargill’s sensory work found the leaner patty was generally perceived as drier and less flavorful, while the fattier patty delivered greater juiciness and flavor. That matters with nineties above four ten and fifties below ninety cents. The lowest-cost blend on paper is not always the blend the consumer wants to eat.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Friday Choice three seventy-eight eighty-three, up two seventy-one cents. Select three fifty-five seventy-six, up three sixty-six. Spread twenty-three oh seven cents. Fresh nineties four ten. Fifties eighty-eight cents. Pork cutout eighty-seven cents. Whole chicken a dollar sixteen. October live cattle two eighteen eighty-seven, down twenty cents. October feeders three thirty-four ninety-two, up three seventeen. October lean hogs seventy-eight twenty-two. December corn five twenty-eight and a quarter. November soybeans thirteen nineteen. November crude ninety-two forty-one, down two twenty.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The most important new beef signal is not simply that slaughter was light. Heifer slaughter is giving us tangible evidence to watch for retention, while packers are profitable enough to withstand lower throughput. Mexican cattle are beginning to move again, and the labor disruption is reminding the market that cattle availability and cattle actually getting through the plant are two different things. Pork has a tighter forward supply setup but still needs demand. Chicken continues to provide volume. For beef buyers, watch the females, the border, and the plant. Those three flows may tell us more about where supply is headed than another week of headline cattle prices. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for September 28, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.