THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME

Closing Bell Friday | October 2, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, October 2nd. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: High prices cure high prices. We've all heard it. But is high beef finally starting to cure high beef — or is it more than that?

Cattle are still tight. Slaughter is down seven point seven percent year to date. Nothing this week changed the long-term supply story. The question is demand. USDA expects beef prices up nine point four percent this year, against one point two for pork and one percent for poultry. That gap shows up in the cart, on the menu and in the meat case. Beef fajitas or chicken enchiladas. Pot roast or a pork roast that hits a better price point. Add those decisions up and that's demand. Is your beef demand as strong as it was this time last year? If the answer is no, watch the customer as closely as the cattle count.

HOST: Thursday kill one hundred nine thousand. Week to date four hundred ten thousand. Year to date down seven point seven percent. Steer carcasses averaged nine hundred seventy-nine pounds. Choice broke to three seventy-seven, down six cents. Select three fifty-three, down eight cents. Fresh nineties three ninety-seven, back under four dollars. Fifties eighty-nine cents. South American frozen nineties still indicated three oh seven to three twelve. Santa Teresa is open again, but one thousand ninety-two head in week one does not fix today's fed-cattle shortage.

SHAWN: Pork packer margins improved to about seven dollars a head, the strongest since January, with utilization at ninety-six point four percent. Cutout eighty-five cents. Chicken slaughter is still modestly above last year, and Hormel is buying Brakebush for about one point oh six billion — value-added foodservice, not live birds. China's extra fifty-five percent tariff on above-quota Brazilian beef took effect October first, the same day another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. tariff-free allocation opened. September's allocation was only about thirty-seven percent used. November West Texas Crude settled at ninety-two eighty-seven, up two forty-five. On a forty-thousand-pound load, every extra four hundred dollars of freight is about a penny a pound. A cheap offer can lose its edge when the truck gets expensive. Tight cattle do not guarantee stronger beef prices everywhere. Next week, watch the customer as closely as the cattle count. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.